Council areas have been notified as to which COVID-19 protection level they will have to adhere to from 06:00 Monday 2nd November, with Inverclyde to be a Tier 3.

No areas of Scotland are to be placed in the highest level of the country’s new five-tier coronavirus restrictions system.

According to the Scottish Government, the assessment of what level of protection should be applied to each local authority is broadly based on an analysis of five key indicators:

• Number of positive COVID-19 cases per hundred thousand people over the last week;
• Percentage of positive tests;
• Forecast for new cases in the weeks ahead;
• The capacity of local hospitals; and
• The capacity of local intensive care facilities.

Final decisions are based on the following factors – the advice and recommendations of local public health officials, National Incident Management Team, the Scottish Government’s chief clinical and policy advisors, and consideration of local circumstances, such as:

• Specific COVID-19 outbreaks; and
• Travel and work patterns; and the extent to which health services are provided by neighbouring health boards.

Alongside a table setting out the levels, a detailed analysis paper has also been published setting out the Scottish Government’s assessment and overall decision for each local authority.

The allocation document below sets out which level, as described in Scotland’s Strategic Framework, will apply in each local authority area in Scotland from Monday 2 November 2020 (Annex A). It also summarises the reasons underlying SG’s decision for each local authority area (Annex B).

The modelling paper below has two parts. The first part sets out SG’s initial approach to creating a basket of indicators to inform decision-making. It is about applying measures grouped as Levels 0 to 4 in Scotland’s Strategic Framework across Scottish local authority areas. The second part describes the “four harms” done by COVID-19 and sets out data supporting four harms assessments at local authority level.

The slide pack below explains 5 indicators used to inform decisions on what Covid level applies to each local authority, from level 0 – 4.

Allocation of Levels

Covid-19 Indicators

Modelling Paper For Local Authorities

Responding, Dr Liz Cameron, Chief Executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, said:

“As a result of the continued growth of COVID-19 cases, businesses, our employees and their families have now been informed as to what level of restrictions will be placed on us through the introduction of the Scottish Government’s tier system for local authorities.

“While the First Minister did not announce a full national lockdown, the majority of Scotland has been designated within Level 3. This will have an immediate impact on businesses confidence and survival.

“In addition, the consequences of imposing additional travel restrictions between areas and levels will result in decreased tourism, also impacting on retailing and hospitality. The effects of this in town centres and for out-of-town retail centres in the key pre-Christmas period must not be underestimated.

“It is critical that Government commit to demonstrating effective working by listening and engaging with the business community, understanding our concerns and collectively identifying solutions which could reduce the growth of the virus, whilst enabling businesses to trade and keep our employees.

“To help all of us to understand how we are progressing, it is essential that the tiered system provides a greater level of detail and transparency, indicating the criteria and trigger points when areas move from one stage to another.

“The First Minister’s plans for weekly and daily reviews are welcome, and business wants to be at the table to help understand and inform the review process and decisions which affect all of us. This will help to build business confidence on the necessity and the efficacy of these continued restrictions, enabling all of us to be working towards the same goals – saving lives and livelihoods.

“Support to all businesses in all sectors affected by these restrictions needs to increase substantially. Job support is helpful – but we need to seriously increase the level of support on offer and the speed at which it is being provided.’’